Subject Control Over a Bayesian Hypothesis-Selection Aid in a Complex Information-Processing System

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Report Number: AMRL TR 64-95
Author(s): Southard, Jack F., Schum, David A., Briggs, George E.
Corporate Author(s): Ohio State University
Laboratory: Behavioral Sciences Laboratory
Date of Publication: 1964-09
Pages: 50
Contract: AF 33(657)-10763
DoD Project: 7184
DoD Task: 718403
Identifier: AD0608108

This report describes the second experiment in a series devoted to estimating the effectiveness of automated hypothesis selection in man-machine systems in which threat evaluations or threat diagnoses are being performed. In the experiment an eight-man team produced evaluations of various threats posed by a hypothetical aggressor. These evaluations were made on the basis of intelligence information gathered on simulated reconnaissance overflights of the homeland area of the aggressor. IBM 1401 and 7090 computer facilities provided the means for generating the complex stimulus environment or data base. The primary output from this threat evaluation team was a series of a posteriori probabilities estimations produced by the team's commanding officer (CO). These estimations represented the CO's judgments as to the most likely of the four response alternatives available to aggressor in deploying his forces along a border of contention. The purpose of the experiment was to observe whether increasing control over the MBT-aid mechanism would increase the user's acceptance of the aid and improve his threat-diagnosis performance.

Provenance: RAF Centre of Aviation Medicine

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