Predicting Insurgent and Government Decisions: The Power Bloc Model
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Report Number: RM-6358-PR
Author(s): Jones, W. M.
Corporate Author(s): The RAND Corporation
Date of Publication: 1970-12
Contract: F44620-67-C-0045
DoD Task:
Identifier: AD0735650
Abstract:
Of what potential utility are logical models of complex governmental and quasi-governmental decision processes? The provide and orderly framework that can serve as a guide in the collecting, arranging and weighing of data, the description of existing conflict situations, and the assessment of current and future conditions.The Power Bloc model of governmental and quasi-governmental decision processes, explained here, is one of a family of such models. it id designed to provide first approximations in assessing situations where either the available data are sparse and of dubious accuracy and timeliness or there is an embarrassing oversupply of such dubious data. The unit of analysis of the Power Bloc model is the community -- a term used to designate interagency groups of a relatively permanent nature that hold a common and generally consistent point of view concerning their functions. The "intelligenc3e community" is an often used term that exemplifies this community approach. The communities considered appropriate for the kinds of analysis handled by the Power Bloc model are:The Political Control Element with functions of final arbiter in national decision operations. The Military Structure with its peacetime conservatism and wartime operational aggressiveness. The Foreign Affairs Community with its function of dealing with its counterparts in other nations, a semiclosed diplomatic community. The Intelligence Community with its tendency to collect data and conduct analyses that support the predilections of its major customers, and with its tendency to take direct action. The Technical and Industrial Managerial Group with its continuous pressure for technological developments The Domestic Administrative Bureaucracy with its ever-present pressure for resource allocation to domestic problems. These communities, which in their attempts to influence governmental decisions become political power bloc, have precursor or embryonic counterparts in the governing bodies of well-developed insurgent movements. in insurgent movements the "proto-communities," which in sum represent a sort of proto-government, evince a strong tendency to develop toward their stereotype within a conventional government. To paraphrase and expand on Stein, "An army is an army is an army and the combat elements of an insurgency will tend toward becoming an army." Similarly for the other communities.The stages through which such proto-communities develop toward governmental communities are sufficiently well marked to permit the outside observer of an insurgency to judge where they are. Their decision concerning the problem know to be facing them is then postulated on the basis of the course of action most likely to help that community to develop toward conventionality. In those cases where the subject government can be shown to be fully developed,. decisions that maintain a balance of community forces are the most likely. A parallel way of predicting such decisions is to assume that the leaders of each of the communities or proto-communities are impelled by certain organizational imperatives. The operative imperative for the kind of analysis appropriate to application of the Power Bloc model are:At the top - the Imperial Imperative, with its strong tendency to take steps that pressure the leader(s) power positions. At the higher levels - the Managerial Imperative, primarily showing consistency and efficiency, which in turn reflect the impact of a manager's organization on his decision processes. The Financial Imperative, which impel a functional branch of a government or proto-government to press for overall decisions that fit functional needs. The Technological Imperative, which is the recurrent tendency for organizations and agencies to advocate national decisions that will, when implemented, justify their acquisition of new and technically advanced equipments. The use of the model to assess situations and give some basis for predicting the future is illustrated by two summary case studies using now obsolete data. First, the North Vietnamese Army and the Viet Cong main military forces in the south are analyzed, and a contingent prediction of their future is made on the basis of their "fit" into the military element of the model. Next the Arab commando units, upon study, are seen to better fit the overall proto-government of the model.
Author(s): Jones, W. M.
Corporate Author(s): The RAND Corporation
Date of Publication: 1970-12
Contract: F44620-67-C-0045
DoD Task:
Identifier: AD0735650
Abstract:
Of what potential utility are logical models of complex governmental and quasi-governmental decision processes? The provide and orderly framework that can serve as a guide in the collecting, arranging and weighing of data, the description of existing conflict situations, and the assessment of current and future conditions.The Power Bloc model of governmental and quasi-governmental decision processes, explained here, is one of a family of such models. it id designed to provide first approximations in assessing situations where either the available data are sparse and of dubious accuracy and timeliness or there is an embarrassing oversupply of such dubious data. The unit of analysis of the Power Bloc model is the community -- a term used to designate interagency groups of a relatively permanent nature that hold a common and generally consistent point of view concerning their functions. The "intelligenc3e community" is an often used term that exemplifies this community approach. The communities considered appropriate for the kinds of analysis handled by the Power Bloc model are:The Political Control Element with functions of final arbiter in national decision operations. The Military Structure with its peacetime conservatism and wartime operational aggressiveness. The Foreign Affairs Community with its function of dealing with its counterparts in other nations, a semiclosed diplomatic community. The Intelligence Community with its tendency to collect data and conduct analyses that support the predilections of its major customers, and with its tendency to take direct action. The Technical and Industrial Managerial Group with its continuous pressure for technological developments The Domestic Administrative Bureaucracy with its ever-present pressure for resource allocation to domestic problems. These communities, which in their attempts to influence governmental decisions become political power bloc, have precursor or embryonic counterparts in the governing bodies of well-developed insurgent movements. in insurgent movements the "proto-communities," which in sum represent a sort of proto-government, evince a strong tendency to develop toward their stereotype within a conventional government. To paraphrase and expand on Stein, "An army is an army is an army and the combat elements of an insurgency will tend toward becoming an army." Similarly for the other communities.The stages through which such proto-communities develop toward governmental communities are sufficiently well marked to permit the outside observer of an insurgency to judge where they are. Their decision concerning the problem know to be facing them is then postulated on the basis of the course of action most likely to help that community to develop toward conventionality. In those cases where the subject government can be shown to be fully developed,. decisions that maintain a balance of community forces are the most likely. A parallel way of predicting such decisions is to assume that the leaders of each of the communities or proto-communities are impelled by certain organizational imperatives. The operative imperative for the kind of analysis appropriate to application of the Power Bloc model are:At the top - the Imperial Imperative, with its strong tendency to take steps that pressure the leader(s) power positions. At the higher levels - the Managerial Imperative, primarily showing consistency and efficiency, which in turn reflect the impact of a manager's organization on his decision processes. The Financial Imperative, which impel a functional branch of a government or proto-government to press for overall decisions that fit functional needs. The Technological Imperative, which is the recurrent tendency for organizations and agencies to advocate national decisions that will, when implemented, justify their acquisition of new and technically advanced equipments. The use of the model to assess situations and give some basis for predicting the future is illustrated by two summary case studies using now obsolete data. First, the North Vietnamese Army and the Viet Cong main military forces in the south are analyzed, and a contingent prediction of their future is made on the basis of their "fit" into the military element of the model. Next the Arab commando units, upon study, are seen to better fit the overall proto-government of the model.