MEMO: A Model for Evaluating Missile Observation Information
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Report Number: RM-6359-PR
Author(s): Pipes, L. J.
Corporate Author(s): The RAND Corporation
Date of Publication: 1970-07
Contract: F44620-67-C-0045
DoD Task:
Identifier: AD0875837
AD Number: AD875837
Abstract:
This memorandum describes a mathematical model for processing and evaluating information obtained from observations of missile firings from silo complexes. The model, MEMO (Model for Evaluating Missile Observation information), was developed as an aid for investigating the empty-silo problem (sometimes referred to as the empty-hole problem). The empty-silo problem basically consists of determining a unique a posteriori probability distribution of residual missiles in a silo complex from which some missile launches have been observed. MEMO enables the simulation and investigation of these events as well as other aspects of the problem, e.g., cases involving noncircular errors.Two versions of MEMO are presented, one written for the JOSS* system and one written in Fortran IV and implemented on the IBM 360 system. The JOSS version is restricted by size and output flexibility but provides a useful tool for preliminary analyses of the problem. The Fortran IV version is designed to handle realistic problems involving complexes containing up to 100 missile silos. The basic underlying assumptions implicit in the model are essentially the same for both versions. The discussion in this Memorandum primarily concerns the Fortran IV version and includes functional descriptions of the major subroutines, necessary and sufficient inputs, possible outputs, and some suggestions to aid in determining probable causes of errors. The JOSS version is described briefly.The listing of each version of the model is given, along with details on various computations and example calculations. The model executes quite rapidly--the computing time for the example case is just less than 5 sec.*JOSS is the trademark and service mark of The Rand Corporation for its computer program and services using that program. The JOSS system is an on-line, time-shared system developed at Rand.
Author(s): Pipes, L. J.
Corporate Author(s): The RAND Corporation
Date of Publication: 1970-07
Contract: F44620-67-C-0045
DoD Task:
Identifier: AD0875837
AD Number: AD875837
Abstract:
This memorandum describes a mathematical model for processing and evaluating information obtained from observations of missile firings from silo complexes. The model, MEMO (Model for Evaluating Missile Observation information), was developed as an aid for investigating the empty-silo problem (sometimes referred to as the empty-hole problem). The empty-silo problem basically consists of determining a unique a posteriori probability distribution of residual missiles in a silo complex from which some missile launches have been observed. MEMO enables the simulation and investigation of these events as well as other aspects of the problem, e.g., cases involving noncircular errors.Two versions of MEMO are presented, one written for the JOSS* system and one written in Fortran IV and implemented on the IBM 360 system. The JOSS version is restricted by size and output flexibility but provides a useful tool for preliminary analyses of the problem. The Fortran IV version is designed to handle realistic problems involving complexes containing up to 100 missile silos. The basic underlying assumptions implicit in the model are essentially the same for both versions. The discussion in this Memorandum primarily concerns the Fortran IV version and includes functional descriptions of the major subroutines, necessary and sufficient inputs, possible outputs, and some suggestions to aid in determining probable causes of errors. The JOSS version is described briefly.The listing of each version of the model is given, along with details on various computations and example calculations. The model executes quite rapidly--the computing time for the example case is just less than 5 sec.*JOSS is the trademark and service mark of The Rand Corporation for its computer program and services using that program. The JOSS system is an on-line, time-shared system developed at Rand.